DISCOVERING INFLECTIONS IN CONSUMER TRENDS
WEEK OF
OCTOBER 30
CVNA, COLM, CROX, DKS, DASH, DG, DKNG, ETSY, LESL, MED, RBLX
CARVANA (CVNA) Reported a 21% drop in vehicle sales. Carvana had been on our slowing list due to all-time high "your price dropped" emails which have moderated just slightly in recent weeks.
COLUMBIA (COLM) Outerwear continues to stand out in the wrong way as we again caught a 50% off campaign.
CROCS (CROX)
'Croctober' Our promotional ensemble tracking discounts for Crocs and HeyDude from a wide range of retailers helped uncover the demand inflection as sales growth has tanked from 36% to forecast nearly flat in just 2 quarters. Once this pattern of sharp rises in significant discounts occurs, we have not seen quick turnarounds in core demand.
DICK'S SPORTING GOODS (DKS)
Another week of 70% off clearance online only unseen a year ago.
DOORDASH (DASH)
Reduced promotional email volumes especially lower volumes of coupons to attract new customers helped foreshadow another revenue beat as GOV grew 24%.
DRAFTKINGS (DKNG)
Increased promotional volumes and 'profit boost' incentives failed to impact growth or margins as DraftKings report better than consensus metrics so we are removing from our list
ETSY (ETSY)
Rarelyseen significant discounts driven by "here's your exclusive 25% off
code" and 15% off related to friends and family as well as other 15% off
coupons at various cohorts.
LESLIE'S POOL (LESL) We captured accelerating promotional email volumes and a "30% off splash" day campaign last week.
MEDIFAST (MED) Returns to our slowing list due to disappearing Optavia order confirmations and sharp negative Optavia web engagement.
ROBLOX (RBLX) We added Roblox to our improving list due to strong growth in new registration confirmations coupled with similar strength in login confirmations.